COVID-19: Changing Our Lives | April 7: Finally some positive news
As new numbers pour in, a new model is sharply adjusted to predict fewer deaths and infections.
Brian Dugger
Each morning, I try to find some good news. It's been tough to find.
This morning was different. There was a story about data pouring in and modeling being adjusted for the peak of the pandemic.
And the modeling is trending in a positive direction.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation out of the University of Washington is one of the main models used by the national coronavirus task force and by the state of Ohio. Last week, it was predicting 1,898 deaths in the state of Ohio by Aug. 4, with a peak of April 19. Today, those predictions are for 544 deaths, with a peak of April 12.
Ohio's medical director, Dr. Amy Acton, did little to douse the enthusiasm, proclaiming, "You've done this Ohio. You are winning the war to protect our scarce resources to let hospitals deal with this."
She has preached since early last month the importance of social distancing to "flatten the curve" - meaning to slow the rate of infections so that hospitals can have the resources to treat the seriously ill.
New data continue to show that the state has been effective in doing so. Some people questioned the draconian measures that Gov. Mike DeWine took early on to prevent large gatherings, but Ohio is far ahead of nearby states in keeping the pandemic under control. Michigan announced its first COVID-19 case on March 10, one day after Ohio, but that state is closing in on 1,000 deaths and the IHME model is predicting a total of 2,963 deaths.
But the one major caveat in these calculations is that Ohioans must continue to social distance through April and into early May. If that doesn't happen, the state could be pushed back to the starting line and the second wave could be damaging than the first - in lives and economically.
That will mean several more weeks of sacrifice and more walks around the block to burn off energy. But at long last, it is finally possible to see light at the end of the tunnel.
Chapter 1 Teachers are heroes
The schools are still closed, and my 7-year-old son, who has autism, loved going to school.
But now he still gets to see his teachers and classmates with online schooling,
I love that Fostoria schools spend two hours a day with the students.
- Anonymous
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NEWS OF THE DAY
- In Ohio, the number of cases climbed to 4,782 and 167 deaths.
- Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announces that restaurants will now be able to sell alcoholic drinks with takeout.
- Ohio also says it is attempting to release some prisoners who meet a variety of conditions so that they can prevent spread of the virus in prisons.
- Michigan's cases reach 18,970 but the pace begins to slow, showing evidence of reaching a peak in the state and hard-hit Detroit.