OHIO, USA — With Ohio's second primary this year already underway Tuesday, turnout is expected to be low as a result of most races having already occurred in May.
Primaries consistently have lower turnout rates than general elections, but each year's numbers reflect how frequently Ohioans vote in lesser-publicized elections. Unlike general elections, primary dates vary by state, resulting in media attention and publicity often being limited to the area in which the election occurred.
The Ohio Secretary of State provides information on election turnout for both primary and general elections. Although we won't know August's poll numbers until later, the May primary may provide some insight.
In the May 3, 2022 primary, 20.88% of eligible voters in Ohio showed up at the polls, down from 23.59% in the March 2020 primary. Numbers from presidential election years tend to be higher, possibly accounting for the almost 3% decrease over two years.
May 2018's primary saw 21.06% of Ohio voters turn out, while a whopping 43.66% of eligible voters came to the polls in March 2016 to vote in, in addition to other elections, Former President Donald Trump's first election campaign against democratic front runners former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
The only other time more than 40% of voters came to the polls in a primary election was the 2008 Ohio primary, which resulted in the nominations of Former President Barak Obama and the late Arizona Senator John McCain.
Turning to the most recent election, data from the Ohio Secretary of State shows Lucas County May 2022 voter turnout was the lowest out of all 88 counties in Ohio. While state average turnout in May sat at 20.8%, only 14.7% of eligible voters came to the polls in Lucas county.
The trend is not exclusive to 2022. In the last midterm primary, only 14.2% of Lucas County voters turned out against a 21% average in the state. Although significantly higher than subsequent midterms primaries, the 2014 Lucas County turnout was still lower than the state average: 35% against 40.65%.
With turnout expected to be lower in this atypical second Ohio primary this year, rates both statewide and in Lucas county will likely be lower than their historical averages. When official results become available, they can be viewed here. The Ohio Secretary of State's website also provides historical election data in Ohio from as far back as 1940, which can be viewed here.