OHIO, USA —
With about three weeks left until the election, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been traveling across the country campaigning, but not much in Ohio.
"There's very little reason for either presidential candidate to campaign in Ohio," said Sam Nelson, a University of Toledo associate professor of political science. "We might see a few ads because they're really targeting Michigan voters just across the border."
In years past, Ohio has been a frequent stop on campaign trails as it was known to be a swing state.
"No president was able to win the office without running through Ohio," said Bowling Green State University political science professor Robert Alexander. "The road to the White House ran through the Buckeye State."
The 2020 election was the first election in over 50 years where Ohio's electoral votes did not go to the winning presidential candidate, with Trump winning by eight percentage points.
Nelson said Ohio used to be more representative of the country as a whole.
"It kind of was a microcosm of the United States in terms of race and ethnicity, and educational levels, and urban and rural voters, and all kinds of different demographic categories," he said.
But alongside a shift in demographics, Nelson said there has been some change in ideologies. He said white, working-class voters moving more Republican and the state's declining population has shifted the state from purple to red.
Alexander said public opinion polling that has been done shows Trump is expected to take Ohio's 17 electoral votes. He said if Trump were to lose Ohio, it would be a "huge shocker."
He said the most recent polls he has done show Trump winning by 7%, but this does not mean that will be the outcome.
"All polls are a snapshot in time," Alexander said. "At the end of the day, it's always determined by voters."
Michigan is one of the key states in this year's race, with both candidates making multiple stops there.
Alexander said despite the proximity and overlap of demographics, access to voting may be a key difference between the two.
"One thing that you're seeing right now is a bit of an impediment when it comes to ballot drop boxes," Alexander said. "There's a fight over ballot drop boxes in the state of Ohio. How many there can be? There's some question about how long early voting ought to last in the state."
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He added that these are small things that can add up over time.
Nelson said it's possible for Ohio to become a swing state again if there were a change in demographics.
"Some changing demographics, maybe in terms of people staying in the state or moving into the state for new industries could make the state more competitive in the future," Nelson said.