CLEVELAND — He hasn't even played four full years with the team, but Emmanuel Clase might already be the greatest relief pitcher in Cleveland baseball history.
First arriving with the then Indians as the crown jewel of the trade that sent franchise legend Corey Kluber to Texas, his Cleveland tenure got off to a rocky start as his entire 2020 campaign was wiped out by a positive test for steroids. Trust would be hard to earn back, but in 2021 at the age of just 23, the right-hander took hold of the team's closer role with 24 saves and a microscopic 1.29 ERA, all while showcasing the 100-mph cutter that has become his signature weapon.
Fast-forward to the present day — there's been a team name change to the Guardians, and Clase, with three All-Star Game appearances, has firmly entrenched himself as the best reliever in the game today. On Friday, he recorded his 150th save in a Cleveland uniform, breaking Cody Allen's franchise record in 170 fewer appearances.
This season, Clase has been at his absolute best, leading the American League with 40 saves and posting an unfathomable 0.71 ERA that makes his 2021 breakout effort look merely mortal. To put that into perspective, his "worst" ERA for any calendar month this year was 1.64 in June, when he still converted all eight save opportunities. He followed that up by winning his second AL Reliever of the Month Award for the season in July, going 8 for 8 on saves again with another "below average" ERA of 0.82.
July's award marked the fifth such Reliever of the Month honor in Clase's career, but could the 26-year-old fireballer have his sights set on a higher prize, perhaps the most prestigious award any pitcher can receive?
Rarified relief
Clase's dominant performance thus far in 2024 has turned heads across the league, and planted him firmly in contention for the AL Cy Young Award. It's a scenario that, to some, seems obvious given his gaudy numbers, but to others could be a non-starter merely because of his defined role as a relief pitcher.
Since its establishment in 1956 in honor of the hero from Newcomerstown who became a legend with the Cleveland Spiders, there have been 125 Cy Young Awards given out across the American and National Leagues. Of those honorees, the vast majority have been starting pitchers, including all six of Cleveland's trophies won between 1972 and 2020.
However, a select few relief pitchers have managed to take home the hardware, beginning with the Los Angeles Dodgers' Mike Marshall in 1974. Sparky Lyle of the New York Yankees joined him three years later as the first AL closer to be so recognized, and seven other names have since been added to the list:
- 1979 (NL): Bruce Sutter - Chicago Cubs
- 1981 (AL): Rollie Fingers - Milwaukee Brewers
- 1984 (AL): Willie Hernández - Detroit Tigers
- 1987 (NL): Steve Bedrosian - Philadelphia Phillies
- 1989 (NL): Mark Davis - San Diego Padres
- 1992 (AL): Dennis Eckersley - Oakland Athletics
- 2003 (NL): Éric Gagné - Los Angeles Dodgers
But since Gagné's triumph more than two decades ago, the baseball writers have completely steered away from relievers when it comes time to vote. As Indians legend and 2007 Cy Young winner CC Sabathia noted earlier this month on the "Ultimate Cleveland Sports Show," not even the undisputed "Greatest Closer of All Time" Mariano Rivera could add that elusive trophy to his sterling resume.
The prevailing thinking among analysts is that relief pitchers shouldn't receive serious consideration because their workload is significantly less than that of starters, who often produce triple the innings output. To them it would be like awarding the MVP award to a part-time position player who hits .350 despite only getting about 300 at-bats.
Plus, both leagues do have Reliever of the Year Awards that have grown in stature over the past 10 years. Clase himself won the AL award (named for Rivera) in 2022, posting a 1.36 ERA and an MLB-best 42 saves. Yet he did not receive even a fifth-place vote for the Cy Young, and in fact never has during any year in his career.
Even when voters were more willing to recognize relievers for their contributions, the stars seemingly had to align, with both a once-in-a-lifetime performance from the closer in question as well as a relative lack of "no doubt" candidates among starters. For instance, Marshall snagged his Cy Young with a still-record 106 appearances out of the bullpen, along with figures of 15 wins and 208 1/3 innings pitched that would make most starters jealous today. Fingers and Hernández were both multi-inning closers on contending teams with sub-2.00 ERAs, while Gagné in 2003 was in the midst of his insane streak of 84 consecutive saves.
Yet even these circumstances don't seem to sway the electorate anymore. Back in 2016, Baltimore Orioles relief ace Zack Britton put up Clase-like statistics with 47 saves and a miniscule 0.54 ERA, while no starter in the AL had an ERA below 3.00. Despite the lack of commanding competition, he still only managed four first-place votes and finished fourth in the balloting, with the Boston Red Sox's Rick Porcello and his 22 wins carrying the day.
By the way, in case you're wondering, only one Cleveland reliever has ever earned points in the Cy Young voting. That was José Mesa, who in 1995 finished runner-up with a league-leading 46 saves and a 1.13 ERA. While he did receive a pair of first-place votes, no one was beating the Seattle Mariners' Randy Johnson that year, with the "Big Unit" going 18-2 and topping AL leaderboards with a 2.48 ERA and 294 strikeouts.
Suffice to say, Clase's path to the Cy Young is narrow, at best, especially in 2024. Still, is it a path than can be traveled?
The case for 'Cy Clase'
Among all pitchers in baseball this year with at least 60 innings under their belts, Clase entered play on Friday leading all comers in the following categories:
- ERA: 0.58
- ERA+: 724
- WHIP: 0.674
- Hits allowed per 9: 4.9
- Opponents' batting average: .160
- Opponents' OPS: .397
- Opponents' OPS+: 12
For context, if those ERA and ERA+ figures hold up, they would trail only Britton's 2016 numbers (0.54 and 803, respectively) for the best among any pitcher in the entire history of baseball with at least 60 innings in a season. It's clear for all to see that this is a historic run for a reliever.
But alas, in order to qualify to be the official leader in these categories, one must throw at least one inning per team game played, so usually 162 innings in a season. Clase is not going to get anywhere near that number, and it's impossible to know just what his resume would look like if he threw as much as a starter.
So if Clase's video game-like stats come with a slight asterisk due to him being a closer, is there any way to compare him to guys averaging five or six innings per outing? Well, thanks to the wonder of advanced metrics, there are some ways we can do that.
According to Baseball Reference's formula, Clase has accounted for 3.9 wins above replacement in 2024, meaning he has theoretically been worth nearly four more wins than a "theoretical replacement player" who could step in at minimal cost. For any player, 3.9 bWAR would be a solid season; for a primary reliever, it's ungodly, and it's only happened 22 times during a full season in the wild-card era since 1995 (remember, there are still 28 games left).
What's more, it currently places Clase tied for ninth among all pitchers in baseball this year, i.e. both relievers and starters. He's the only MLB reliever in the top 10, and against his direct Cy Young competition in the AL, he's tied for fourth.
In short, Clase has been so amazing as a closer this season that he has placed himself among the best of the best in what many believe to be the most important stat in the sport, a place normally reserved for starters thanks to their bulk contributions.
Finally, let's take a look at win probability added, which tells us how much of a percentage chance a pitcher or batter adds or subtracts from his team's chances of winning. For example, according to Baseball Reference, Clase entered the ninth inning of Wednesday's game with the Guardians holding on to a 93% chance of winning. After he faced four batters and got the last three outs, the odds obviously increased to 100%, meaning Clase himself added 7% to their chances of victory and therefore posted a single-game WPA of 0.07.
This can be somewhat simplistic, as it doesn't factor in things like team fielding or an opposing hitter's approach at the plate. Regardless, Clase's WPA for 2024 presently sits at 5.4 meaning he has added 540 percentage points to Cleveland's chances of winning games throughout the season. That sits above not just all pitchers in the sport (again, starters and relievers), but position players, as well.
Again, he's just been that good. However, there is one other candidate who could make this whole discussion moot.
The Skubal issue
Up in "That State Up North," Tarik Skubal is having his own season for the ages for the division rival Detroit Tigers. For the moment, the 27-year-old leads the AL in these categories:
- Wins: 15
- ERA: 2.58
- Strikeouts: 193
- ERA+: 161
- FIP: 2.59
- Strikeouts per 9: 10.8
Let's focus on the wins, ERA, and strikeouts for a moment. When a starter leads his league in all three of these statistics at the end of a season, he is said to have won the "Pitching Triple Crown," and while it's not as prestigious as the identically named honor for hitters, it's still only been done 43 times in MLB history.
Since the Cy Young Award's debut in 1956, there have been 14 Triple Crown seasons among pitchers. All 14 of those pitchers won the Cy Young in those respective occurrences, most recently the Indians' Shane Bieber during the pandemic-shortened campaign of 2020.
If Skubal manages to maintain his current pace, anyone but him being voted the AL Cy Young winner would literally be breaking historical precedent, and his nobility in the non-Triple Crown categories will only improve his chances. By the way, he also leads all league pitchers with a 5.4 bWAR, a decisive advantage over Clase.
Can it be done?
Even with Clase establishing himself as by far the best reliever in baseball, and with numbers that place him among the immortals, he faces an uphill battle to win the Cy Young. After all, relievers almost never win the award anyway, and even Zack Britton didn't come all that close despite potentially being even better in 2016 than Clase is now.
Added to that, Clase is competing with another historically great season from Tarik Skuball, the type of season that has always resulted in a Cy Young up to now. Heck, if the season ended today, it would be hard even for me to argue Skuball isn't the rightful winner, especially given the higher stature starting pitchers undoubtedly have.
On the other hand, for us to simply write Clase off would be foolish, and we shouldn't just be relying on the past to dictate what we do now. Yes, I know Mariano Rivera never won a Cy Young, but that was obviously an egregious mistake (I would personally contend he was robbed in 2005). We can't punish today's amazing relievers just because the best there ever was didn't get a fair shake from the voters.
The stats speak for themselves — Clase has been utterly incredible, dazzling us with a season that could go down as one of the best by any reliever at any time. I don't think Cleveland fans take him for granted, but at some point I hope we can can step back and realize that we are truly in the presence of greatness.
He may not win the Cy Young, and that's OK. Skuball and perhaps others are more than deserving. However, the days of writing off relievers simply because they are relievers need to end. Frankly, I doubt even the best starters in baseball could do with ease what Clase is doing right now.
Look, there's still a lot of baseball left to be played. The full story is not yet written. But Emmanuel Clase can win the Cy Young, and if he's not at least on your short list, it's time to reevaluate.
If he's not a contender, I'm not sure any reliever will be ever again, and that would be a shame. For now, let's all just have fun watching him on that mound.
Historical statistics derived from Baseball Reference's Stathead database.