OHIO, USA —
Busy weather pattern ahead
There is a saying in March – ‘In like a lion, out like a lamb’ – but this year, the month is staying away from the quiet side. It’s been one of the wettest starts to March on record and signs are pointing toward the weather pattern loading up with more wet conditions before the end of the month.
This busy weather pattern also opens the opportunity for warm air to our south to be moved into our area. There will continue to be a steady stream of storm systems making landfall in the western U.S. These storm systems traverse the country and arrive here every few days. They not only bring the wet weather with them but those brief warm-ups.
The clouds, and with association with the weather pattern, also make it difficult to achieve very cold overnight lows. This all adds up to a weather pattern that will continue to deliver warmer-than-average temperatures through the end of this month and likely into early April 2023.
Be weary of the lake breeze
The average temperature of western Lake Erie is still near 40 degrees, which will be far cooler than the surrounding air the next few weeks. Cold air is more dense than warm air, which means it is heavier and is harder to displace. Just a slight east or northeast wind can establish this colder ‘lake air’ over northwest Ohio.
This happens most frequently when a low-pressure system moves out of the Rockies and strengthens across the central plains. It makes the perfect scenario for dramatic temperature swings that we all have come to know in the spring.
First, the chilly lake breeze locks in and when the low pressure moves closer to the Great Lakes, the colder air is shoved out with a strong southerly wind which unlocks much warmer air from the southern U.S.
Off to a warm start
In a winter which has been one of the least snowy in Toledo history, it’s probably no surprise that it’s also been one of the warmest on record. Through the first 10 weeks of the year, Toledo is on pace for the third warmest year in history.
These weather records go all the way back to the early 1870s. Through January, February and most of March the average high temperature has been 43 degrees. That’s nearly 6 degrees above average.
There are no signs for any significant cold outbreaks to occur heading into early April, which means this sizzling, warm start to 2023 will likely continue. There is a long way to go in the year but temperatures running warmer than normal would continue a trend for the past decade, with warmer and warmer weather occurring locally.
