TOLEDO, Ohio — Where's winter? February is already halfway done and winter weather is still at a standstill.
In this week's edition of Climate Friday, we'll break down the winter season so far and look ahead to what the rest of February has in store. We'll also analyze the impacts of this unseasonable warmth on Lake Erie and ice levels on the Great Lakes.
The recent mild and snow-free winter weather continued this week, and winter snowfall totals have fallen over a foot below average. Winter snowfall currently sits at only 9.5 inches at Toledo Express Airport - over 14 inches less than where we should be.
Winter rainfall is much closer to average as over 5 inches of liquid precipitation have fallen this season. The WTOL 11 weather team isn't expecting any measurable snowfall for the next 10 days.
So what does a normal February bring weather-wise? Statistically, February is the second snowiest month of the year, landing just behind January. A typical February doses out over 10 inches of snowfall.
The past two Februarys have exemplified this snowy trend, each delivering a major snowstorm with over a foot of accumulation. We're running out of time to see a big snowfall this February, and mild and dry weather will likely persist through at least the third week of the month.
February typically brings chilly temperatures with an average of 30 degrees. This year has been far milder and less snowy than average.
This mild winter weather has had a big impact on Lake Erie and ice cover on the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes as a whole are only about 10% covered in ice right now, just one-fourth of the normal amount in mid-February. Despite brief cold spells causing some ice development, the overwhelming trend of this winter has leaned toward mild weather.
The disparity in ice conditions is even more noticeable on Lake Erie, which is currently only about 12% covered in ice. Due to its shallower waters, Lake Erie typically ices over more readily, especially on the western basin near Toledo.
In mid-February, Lake Erie is typically 60% covered in ice. Though portions of the lake briefly iced over around Christmas and again in late-January due to short-lived cold spells, ice cover has remained significantly below-average this winter.
With mild weather in the forecast, ice cover will likely shrink and melt even more.
Windy weather has also caused ice floes, or moving chunks of unstable ice on the lake. Due to ice floes, the Coast Guard has already made several rescues on Lake Erie, and advises ice fishermen to avoid the lake in this weather.
Mild weather will continue through mid-to-late February, the time of year when ice cover normally peaks. In late-February, Lake Erie is normally 60-70% frozen over. Though there's still time for a late ice fishing season, this winter's mild weather has prevented winter recreation on the lake and other bodies of water.
It's still too early to write off this winter, but we're running out of time to see frigid and snowy conditions. The WTOL 11 weather team is predicting a sustained stretch of mild weather that will last through at least the middle of the month.
With just 38 days to go until spring, mild weather will become even more common in the coming weeks. Stay tuned to the Climate Friday newsletter for updates on how this winter continues to unfold.
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