TOLEDO, Ohio — Though the month of August ended with cool and comfortable conditions, September will start much hotter in a reminder than summer isn't over yet. While September heat occurs almost every year, this stretch of 90-degree days will go down in the record books as one of the hottest in Toledo history.
How is climate change impacting late-summer heat? Meteorologist John Burchfield analyzes the data in this week's edition of Climate Friday.
As we turn over the calendar into September, remember summer warmth isn't in the rearview mirror - our average high temperature still sits at a balmy 82 degrees. Temperatures this weekend and most of next week will be well above average, a trend expected across most of the United States.
Here at home, highs will surge to the upper 80s Saturday afternoon, climbing to the 90s on Sunday. Labor Day will go down in the history books as one of the warmest on record, and a high temperature of 94 degrees would tie the all-time hottest. Temperatures this week will rival records, which sit at 95 degrees Monday through Wednesday, 99 degrees Thursday and 98 degrees Friday.
The above graphic compares forecast highs to records. Through midweek, high temperatures are expected come close to record-levels. A slight overperformance in afternoon highs could result in record heat.
Looking at the forecast as a whole, this first week of September will bring an average high near 89 degrees, a solid seven degrees warmer than normal. Such a prolonged stretch of late-summer warmth is highly unusual, and this week could solidify a spot atop the list of hottest first weeks of September in Toledo's recorded history.
Though temperatures will surge to the 90s several times this week, the triple digits will remain elusive. Toledo's hottest-ever September days of 100 degrees occurred in 1939 and twice in 1953. We will fall short of reaching this 100 degree mark, though the prolonged nature of this September heat wave will make for a toasty 10-day forecast.
Extreme heat and records have occurred for decades, as evidenced by those historic highs from the 1930s and 1950s, but are growing more common due to climate change. Across the country, autumn weather is growing considerably warmer. The map below shows fall warming since 1970, a trend most notable in the western states, where temperatures have risen by three to four degrees.
New England has also seen a vast uptick in temperatures, with northeastern states like Maine and Vermont experiencing a 3.5 degree uptick in temperatures in the last half-century. Across the Great Lakes, the impacts of global warming have still be notable. Data since 1970 shows a sizeable 3.9 degree increase in temperatures in Toledo since 1970.
Despite year-to-year variation, the overall trendline reflects a steady climb in temperatures. In the past decade alone, temperatures have risen 2.3 degrees in the Toledo metro, a change you may have noticed within your lifetime. With late-summer and early autumn temperatures rapidly on the rise, September heat is growing more common and extreme.
Though warm weather has always occurred late in the season, it's becoming more prevalent and intense. This week will bring a handful of days in the 90s with several days near record-levels!
PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Climate Friday | 90-degree days are becoming more common with climate change
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