TOLEDO, Ohio — With Thanksgiving less than a week away, it's all eyes on the winter season and the cold and snow that will inevitably follow. This week brought the first snowfall and coldest wind chills of the season so far, a reminder that winter is right around the corner.
In this week's edition of Climate Friday, Meteorologist John Burchfield will help you plan ahead for Thanksgiving and look back on holiday climatology from previous years.
Though the first taste of winter arrived this week, the fall season has felt overwhelmingly mild. Only five freezing temperatures have been recorded this season so far with the coldest temperature reading just 30 degrees at Toledo Express Airport.
The coldest temperatures of the season occurred on Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, each with the Mercury only dropping to 30. These temperature readings are hardly unusual for late November, and the average low has dropped to 32 degrees as of Friday. The normal high is down to 48 degrees, a sign that winter is near. Though this November has been 6 degrees
Historic Thanksgiving Temperatures
Thanksgiving can bring a spectrum of weather extremes ranging from mild temperatures to bitter cold and sticking snow to heavy rain. The warmest Thanksgiving on record occurred in 1896 when temperatures surged to 68 degrees.
Though weather equipment was not quite as sophisticated as it is in the present era, this 19th century record still stands today and this anomalous warmth from 1896 seems legitimate based on historical weather records. The coldest Thanksgiving low temperature occurred in 1930 as temperatures plunged to 7 degrees.
Thanksgiving precipitation has also impacted many holidays over the years, sometimes frozen, other times liquid. In 2010, 1.37 inches of rain drenched northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan on Thanksgiving. The snowiest Thanksgiving occurred in 1902 as 2.0 inches of snow blanketed the ground.
Thanksgiving Snowfall - Is it Common?
Thanksgiving snowfall has become more rare in recent years, in part due to climate change. The last measurable Thanksgiving snowfall occurred in 2005 when 0.7 inches added on to the snow already on the ground. This Thanksgiving snow was notable because it contributed to a total snow depth of three inches, tied for the greatest ever on Thanksgiving.
2004 also brought accumulating snow on Thanksgiving with half an inch of snowfall. Recent Thanksgivings have failed to deliver any meaningful snowfall; the last time we saw any snow on Thanksgiving was 2019 with just a trace of accumulation that was not measurable.
Though you may remember snowy Thanksgivings from your formative years, the data shows that holiday snowfall is quite uncommon as a whole. Of the 126 Thanksgiving holidays recorded using official weather data in the Toledo area, only 40 featured any snow. The overwhelming majority- 86 years- failed to bring any snow.
This graph breaks down the number of Thanksgiving holidays featuring a range of snowfall totals.
Only 7 Thanksgivings have delivered over an inch of snow accumulation. Just three have featured half an inch to 0.9 inches. Seven Thanksgivings have come with 0.1 inches to 0.4 inches. And a more significant 23 have brought a trace of accumulation- in other words, flakes that did not amount to a measurable total. In the temperature department, Thanksgiving normally brings highs in the low to mid 40s and lows just shy of 30 degrees.
The holiday often includes temperature extremes ranging from bitter cold to spring-like warmth. 14 Thanksgivings have been warmer than 60 degrees. 25 have featured highs in the 50s. Temperatures in the 40s have been more commonplace over the years, occurring on 50 Thanksgivings. 50 Thanksgivings have also come with highs in the 30s.
Just 11 Thanksgiving holidays have brought highs colder than 30 degrees. This data shows that the vast majority of Thanksgivings have brought highs in either the 30s or 40s with some outliers on both ends of the spectrum.
Recent Thanksgivings
How has the weather fared in recent Thanksgivings? Last year was milder than average with a high 50, low 37 and no precipitation of any type. The year prior was even milder with a near record high of 62 along with some light rain showers.
Thanksgiving 2021 was mild and damp with a high 51 and 0.25 inches of rainfall. Thanksgiving 2020 was also mild with a high of 54. The last Thanksgiving with any snowfall was 2019, which also brought chilly temperatures; highs topped out at 39 and lows at 36.
As a whole, recent Thanksgiving holidays have brought very mild weather with temperatures mainly in the 50s. Cold and snowy Thanksgivings have grown less frequent, in part due to climate change.
What you can you expect this year?
The WTOL 11 weather team is expecting the colder weather pattern to continue into the end of November. After Thursday's Alert Day snow showers and wind chills in the 20s, the weather pattern will turn sharply cooler for the remainder of the month.
Thanksgiving Day will likely bring high temperatures near 40 degrees with a light rain and snow mix possible.
The WTOL 11 weather team is monitoring a potential weather disturbance that could bring wintry precipitation on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. With winter right around the corner, stay tuned to the Climate Friday Newsletter!