TOLEDO, Ohio — Historic local tornado outbreaks like the Palm Sunday 1965, Anthony Wayne High School 1991, Van Wert and Tiffin 2002, and Millbury 2010 storms have shaped how we view severe storms.
These storms and dates bring back devastating memories to families of northwest Ohio. Naturally, these same storms also tend to create a fear about when the next tornado strikes. Add to those memories the catastrophic images following fresh tornado disasters in Kentucky and Illinois late last year. And for some, the idea of severe storms can be near crippling, worrying about their safety and the safety of their loved ones.
Preparation and plans before severe weather are always the best idea. We know and expect storms every spring, summer and even fall. But have you ever wondered what are the actual chances a tornado will hit your specific house? It turns out the odds are low, even here on the edge of tornado alley. Let’s break down the numbers.
This map shows all the tornado touchdowns since 1950 in our area. When you break it down it comes out to an average of between three and four tornado touchdowns each year. The most common tornado is an EF-0, the weakest. The strongest tornado rating ever in our area is an EF-4. Tornadoes of this magnitude have occurred here several times. On average each year, those tornadoes damage an area of about a half-square mile typically with winds below 100 mph. There is roughly 6000 square miles in our area. This means your average chance to being hit by a twister on any given year are around 1 in 12,000.
But that’s your chance for any tornado. What about a strong tornado like an EF-4? Those simply don’t happen often in our area. Since 1950 there has only been a violent tornado around once every decade. While these tornadoes don’t touch down often, they do tend to stay on the ground for a long period of time.
The fact is tornadoes happen and we need to be prepared. But sitting on the far edge of tornado alley our chances are much lower than other parts of the country.