TOLEDO, Ohio — Imagine the following:
It's Nov. 28. Turkeys are in the oven. Potatoes are getting mashed. The green beans are in a casserole dish, dowsed in mushroom soup and sprinkled with oodles of French-fried onions. Perhaps a few Vince Guaraldi tunes are playing faintly in the background.
It's a wonderful, delicious image. And it's full of certainties, like knowing which family member is way too into cranberry sauce, or the continued traditions of sitting down to watch "The Game", or a holiday cartoon.
But because we live in northwest Ohio, there remains one, absolute uncertainty: the weather. A Thanksgiving Day forecast can bring anything from several inches of snow to temperatures near a balmy 70 degrees. While the day itself is more than two weeks out, taking a look at long-term weather trends - as well as historical averages - can give us a glimpse as to what we might expect come Turkey Day.
Thanksgiving Averages
How do you remember Thanksgiving weather? Chances are, it was chilly and just a little damp, though naturally it varies year-to-year. On average, using data collected since 1871, Thanksgiving Day in Toledo sees the following forecast:
- Average high temperature: 45 to 48 degrees
- Average low temperature: 30 to 33 degrees
- Average precipitation: 0.08 inches of rain.
Record-setting Thanksgivings
Not every Thanksgiving is typical. Some set records. Here are some memorable, record-setting Thanksgivings of past.
- Warmest High: 68 degrees in 1896
- Coldest High: 16 degrees in 1930
- Warmest Low: 55 degrees in 1896
- Coldest Low: 7 degrees in 1930
- Rainiest: 1.37 inches in 2010
- Snowiest: 2.0 inches in 1902
Check out the numbers below for precipitation in more recent Thanksgivings.
Jackets and rainboots: How often is a snowy or rainy Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving 1902 saw the most snow for the date on record. Since then, we have seen traces of snow, as early as 2019. It has snowed on Thanksgiving 42 times since the beginning of record keeping.
Rain chances on Thanksgiving are pretty common every few years. The last time we were rain-free on Thanksgiving was just last year: 2023. We've had more Thanksgivings with rain than no rain. There have only been 56 dry Thanksgivings since the beginning of record keeping.
Thanksgiving 2024: What to expect
While it is still a little too early for exact numbers and cloud coverage, our WTOL 11 meteorologists are forecasting a more milder week before Thanksgiving with higher rain chances possible. Make sure to check back in to your WTOL 11 weather forecast as we get closer to turkey day.
