TOLEDO, Ohio — The 2024 hurricane season is in full swing with an active pattern in the tropics.
Although right here in Northwest Ohio we are not heavily impacted by tropical cyclones, we can surely see the effects and remnants of them days after they make landfall in the southern states.
In the past, some areas throughout Northwest Ohio have even seen wind damage from tropical cyclones that have held strength well into the northern states.
As most know, when a tropical cyclone moves over land, it is weakened because the hurricane is no longer receiving moisture from the warm weather it is fueled by.
Over the past couple of years, not only for the Great Lakes, but also for the oceans, the topic of discussion has been warming water surface temperatures across the globe creating many problems for our environment.
One of those main problems is that with the result of warmer sea surface temperatures, it has resulted in the higher frequency of tropical cyclones' better development.
A word that has been thrown around over the past few years with tropical cyclones that reached the Gulf of Mexico is rapid intensification. So, what exactly is rapid intensification? That is what we are breaking down in this week’s WTOL 11 Weather Impact and how this will be a common word used increasingly if our climate continues to warm.
Rapid intensification
When we talk about a hurricane or tropical storm being active in the Gulf of Mexico, more often than not, it will likely strengthen based on how robust and warm the water is in that area.
Around this time of year, the average water temperature can range from 85 to 95 degrees. This can result in the strengthening of tropical cyclones that do make it to the Gulf of Mexico.
Rapid intensification is the max sustained wind speeds within the hurricane.
According to the National Hurricane Center rapid intensification is based on an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period. A 30 knot jump can be significant when determining the strength of a Tropical storm or a hurricane.
We measure hurricane categories by what is known as the Saffir-Simpson Scale. According to the National Hurricane Center, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time.
The scale provides examples of the type of damage and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity.
For example, category 1 hurricane wind speeds would range from 74 mph to 95 mph.
So, if you were to have a Category 1 hurricane with winds at 94 mph, and then increased winds by 32 mph in 24 hours this would be defined as rapid intensification. A 32-mph max sustained wind increase would put this Hurricane at a category 3 hurricane within just a day.
Warm Sea Waters Fueling Cyclones
Ocean waters across the globe have warmed significantly over the past 2 years which has been the main fuel to the increase of rapid intensification, and stronger tropical cyclones.
According to Climate Central, June 2024 marked the 15th consecutive month of record-breaking global sea surface temperatures. Record ocean heat has contributed to NOAA’s outlook for a highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends through Nov. 30.
With active tropical activity this week, Helene is expected to be another tropical cyclone that undergoes rapid intensification during peak hurricane season.
The trend of rapidly intensifying cyclones has been a constant trend throughout the last 50 years of stronger and faster storms.
Although rapid intensification happens at least 30 knots increase within 24 hours, some storms in the past have an extreme intensification with 50+ mph wind increase within 24 hours.
Over the past 2 years, we have seen record global sea surface temperatures starting in January for 2023 and 2024. This year through the first 8 months, we have seen record daily global sea surface temperatures, which has fueled the results of dangerous hurricane potential throughout the summer and fall months.
Examples of Rapid Intensification This Year
We now have two evident hurricanes that have undergone rapid intensification, and now another that is likely to happen later this week.
Hurricane Beryl was a Category 3 hurricane on June 30 as it made its way towards the southern peninsula. To fast forward a day later, evidence showed that this Hurricane strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane in just a day, giving evidence signs that Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified a full two categories within a day.
This week we now have another major hurricane on a collision course with Florida. As it makes its way more into the Gulf of Mexico, it was a category hurricane, but now it is expected to make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane, with expected landfall Thursday night.
This is a prime example of rapid intensification as Hurricane Helene is expected to rise in categorial strength in less than 2 days, as it makes landfall in Florida. This comes at the peak of hurricane season, as the average for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is typically around 6, so we are actively in the peak of hurricane season.
Impacts With Rapid Intensification.
Tropical cyclones have become the costliest billion-dollar disasters over the last several years. According to Climate Friday billion-dollar tropical cyclones account for over $1.4 trillion in damages since 1980 — more than half of the cost of all billion-dollar disasters since then.
Over the same period, billion-dollar tropical cyclones have caused an estimated 6,934 deaths in the U.S.
Total billion-dollar tropical cyclone costs are highest in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida — but extend to 29 states throughout the South, Southeast, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, as well as to Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Of the 63 tropical cyclones that have caused at least $1 billion in damage in the U.S. from 1980 to July 2024 (Hurricane Beryl), 44 (70%) underwent rapid intensification. Hurricanes have caused severe damage to many areas, and irreplaceable property to many areas that have been impacted by these storms.
In 2022 tropical cyclones wreaked havoc across the US, to where the total damage cost for 2022 was marked at 122 billion dollars in damages across the US. This will continue to be a growing topic, and a growing concern as ocean waters continue to warm, and tropical cyclones become bigger, stronger, and faster. This will lead to many vulnerabilities of coastal areas, and likely the decline of beach recreation over the years due to the danger of the tropics.
