TOLEDO, Ohio — With the total solar eclipse fewer than 50 days away, you may be wondering what type of weather to expect on April 8. Early April can be a wild card weather-wise, but past data and climatology can shed some light - and maybe even some sunlight - on what you may anticipate for the total solar eclipse.
A clear sky is the most important meteorological variable for eclipse viewing. Though the sky will still grow dark during totality regardless of cloud conditions, bright sunshine will enable viewing of the sun's corona as the moon obscures its brightest light.
Statistically, early April is a cloudy time of year for the Great Lakes region, and overcast days are more common than sunny ones. In northwest Ohio, the sky is typically 60% to 70% blanketed in cloud cover during the month of April. This means that the chances of blue skies on April 8 are a dismal 30% for most of northwest Ohio.
While the Midwest region is generally cloudy in April, other areas in the path of totality have much greater odds of sunshine. Some cities in Texas such as Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio have over 70% chances of a clear view of the eclipse. Other southern cities like Little Rock have high chances of blue skies on April 8. Many cities in the Midwest in the path of totality including Indianapolis, Cleveland, Toledo and Buffalo have a mere 30% chance of sunny weather. While springtime statically brings gloomy conditions, not every April is overcast.
April is a time of change in northwest Ohio, often delivering a vast spectrum of weather conditions. A comparison of weather conditions on the past several April 8ths shows a wide array of temperatures, sky conditions and weather phenomena.
April 8, 2023 brought brilliant sunshine and pleasant temperatures topping out at 59 degrees, near normal for early April. Official sky cover observations from Toledo Express Airport showed no cloud cover whatsoever. Sky cover is measured on a scale of zero to ten, and is marked as a zero in on the April 8, 2023 climate records.
What about the year prior? April 8, 2022 brought cloudy skies with rain showers. While rainfall only amounted to 0.02 inches, gray clouds obscured the sunshine and kept temperatures cooler than normal in the low-50s. April 8, 2022 represents a more typical spring day in northwest Ohio with nine tenths of the sky covered in clouds.
Sometimes, spring weather can be a mixed bag, and April 8, 2021 brought both clouds and sunshine. Thunderstorms impacted much of the Great Lakes region, leaving behind almost a quarter inch of rainfall in the Toledo area. Despite the storms, the sky was only 60% covered in clouds, indicating pockets of sunshine throughout the day. April 8, 2021 felt more like an early summer day with a record-tying high temperature of 79 degrees.
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Lastly, let's look back at the weather on April 8, 2020. With a high temperature of 74 degrees and spring storms, this day also brought a mix of weather conditions. Despite periodic thunderstorms, sky cover data reveals that only three tenths of the sky was obscured in clouds. Spring storms only amounted to 0.02" of rain on April 8, 2020. Data from these recent years shows that April 8 is often a weather wild card, delivering a broad spectrum of conditions.
Spring is often viewed as a rainy season, and the data supports this belief. Early April frequently doses out heavy precipitation, usually of the liquid variety. The rainiest April 8 in Toledo's recorded history occurred in 1938 when 1.18 inches of precipitation fell. April 8, 1873 delivered nearly an inch of rainfall, tied with 1991 at 0.99 inches. Rounding out the top four was April 8, 1926 with 0.98 inches of rainfall.
While rain is more common in springtime, snow can and does occur periodically. The snowiest April 8 on record in the Toledo area occurred in 1957, when a whopping 6.5 inches of snow stuck on the ground. Ranking second on the list is April 8, 2016, which dosed out 3.8 inches of snowfall. Even more noteworthy was the additional 4 inches of snow that accumulated the following day. With a combined total of 7.8 inches of snowfall, this spring storm system ranks as the third greatest snow-maker in the entire month of April.
Though spring usually brings more rain than snow, wintry weather can linger well into April. Snowfall is not likely to impact viewing of the total solar eclipse, but April 8 snowfall has occurred in recent years and cannot be entirely ruled out.
Lastly, let's talk early April temperatures and what you can expect for eclipse viewing. April temperatures often resemble a roller coaster, fluctuating significantly in a short span of time depending on the jet stream pattern. Tied for the warmest April 8 on record in the Toledo area are 2021 and 2001, each of which featured a balmy high temperature of 79 degrees.
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Ranking number three on the list is April 8, 1969 which delivered a summer-like high temperature of 78, In 1919, temperatures climbed to 76 on April 8. April 8, 1999 brought a mild high of 75. Rounding out the top eight are 1970, 1981, and 2019, each of which shared a high temperature of 74.
Though early April often brings unseasonable warmth with a summery feel, cold conditions are also possible from time to time. The coldest April 8 low temperature in recorded history occurred in 1982 when the mercury plunged to 10 degrees.
Milder conditions are preferable to most eclipse viewers, and with hundreds of thousands of tourists flocking to northwest Ohio, warmer weather will make for more pleasant spectating. Though April 8 is still far outside of range of the 10-day forecast, the WTOL 11 weather team will keep an eye on long-range pattern shifts that may impact our weather in early April.
Though April is a wild card weather-wise, it can bring sunny and mild conditions ideal of eclipse viewing. Time will tell what April 8, 2024 has in store, but you can trust the WTOL 11 weather team for the latest forecast as the total solar eclipse draws closer.
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